Modeling and prediction of dengue cases in the short and long term in Villa Clara, Cuba using climatic variables and objective regressive regression

Climate has an important influence on infectious diseases and their different modes of transmission. Dengue is among the most relevant for Cuban public health. Due to the pronounced effect that environmental changes can have on the biology of Aedes aegypti, it is very likely that the epidemiology of this arbovirosis will be profoundly influenced by future climate change. The aim of the study was to analyze the possible relationship between meteorological variables and the incidence of Dengue in Villa Clara province, Cuba during the years 2017-2020, and to perform a predictive model of the behavior of the disease during 2021. Retrospective research was carried out in which the possible effects of diversifications of temperature, precipitation, humidity, water vapor tension, atmospheric pressure, wind speed, cloudiness and saturation deficit on the deviations in the epidemiological curves of Dengue infection in Villa Clara (2017-2020) were analyzed to predict the future behavior of the referred entity during the current year. A correlation of the infectious entity with minimum temperature (R=0.332; p=0.023) and water vapor tension (R=0.298; p=0.042) was obtained, as well as an inverse relationship with atmospheric pressure (R=-0.317; p=0.030). It is concluded that a predictive model was obtained for 2021 with high reliability, in which a decrease in the incidence of Dengue is predicted in the month of March until July, but after August to December the values will increase greatly.